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Sweden was one of the first countries to introduce a carbon tax in 1991. We assemble a unique dataset tracking CO2 emissions from Swedish manufacturing firms over 26 years to estimate the impact of carbon pricing on firm-level emission intensities. We estimate an emission-to-pricing elasticity of around two, albeit with substantial heterogeneity across subsectors and firms, where higher abatement costs and tighter financial constraints are associated with lower elasticities. A simple calibration suggests that 2015 CO2 emissions from Swedish manufacturing would have been roughly 30% higher without carbon pricing.

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