Abstract
Black & Gilson (1998) argue that an IPO-welcoming stock market stimu- lates venture deals by enabling VCs to give founders a valuable “call option on control.” We study 18,000 startups to investigate the value of this option. Among firms that reach IPO, 60% of founders are no longer CEO. With little voting power, only half of the others survive three years as CEO. At initial VC financ- ing, the probability of getting real control of a public firm for three years is 0.4%. Our results shed light on control evolution in startups, and cast doubt on the plausibility of the call-option theory linking stock and VC markets.
